Remember when flying cars were just around the corner? Or when fully autonomous vehicles were supposed to dominate our roads by 2020? The tech industry has a long history of overselling the immediate future, and now we’re seeing similar patterns with Artificial General Intelligence (AGI).

OpenAI’s Sam Altman recently made waves by stating they’re “confident” about knowing how to build AGI, with some vague implications about AI agents coming this year. The statement immediately reminded me of those countless tech presentations I’ve attended over the years, where speakers confidently declared revolutionary breakthroughs were just months away.